In the past, marketers often began customer segmentation based on geo/demographic data, such as gender, age, income, or location. On a slightly higher level, some would use RFM analysis or lifestyle segmentation to understand “what type of customer” they were dealing with.
However, as marketing has become more complex, relying solely on these traditional data points is no longer enough. Therefore, marketers have started looking at behavioral patterns, such as who buys frequently, who makes one-time purchases, and who are top spenders. While this information is valuable, it still has limitations because it only reflects “what has already happened.”
Analyzing past behavior is like telling a story of the past. In today’s fast-paced market, the more important question is: “What is the customer likely to do next?”
This is where intent segmentation comes in. It shifts the marketing game from chasing customers → to leading them.
Intent Hidden in Purchase Behavior
For example, consider an office worker who normally buys two cups of coffee a day but recently reduced it to one and switched the second to green tea. If a brand only looks at purchase volume, it might assume he’s “cutting consumption.” In reality, he is adjusting his lifestyle and reducing caffeine intake. Therefore, offering decaf or plant-based drinks at this moment → could win his loyalty before competitors.
Or take Prae, who usually buys small skincare products regularly but suddenly disappears for a while and then purchases a premium set worth nearly $150. This is not a sign of churn. On the contrary, it indicates she is ready to upgrade. If a brand’s AI-powered CRM detects this, it’s a perfect opportunity to offer exclusive services or premium memberships.
Similarly, Jay normally buys mid-range gadgets but has recently started purchasing high-end accessories. This signals that he is ready to become a high spender. Offering a flagship bundle or trade-in options at this time is a golden opportunity.
In another case, Aom, who usually buys medium-size diapers weekly, starts purchasing larger packs more frequently. At first glance, it might seem like she’s stocking up, but the intent is clear: she needs more → this is the perfect moment to offer a subscription package.
Lastly, Nont, a student who previously ordered food once a week, now orders twice daily with larger meals. His intent is evident: from an occasional treat → to a main meal. Offering meal plans or subscriptions could secure him as a loyal customer.
Pitfall: Behavior Alone Can Be Misleading
If you rely only on past behavior without understanding the underlying intent, you might misinterpret signals and miss major opportunities
For example, Ploy used to buy three pairs of fashion shoes per month but has recently reduced her purchases to just one pair per month. Although it may seem like she is churning at first glance, in reality, the pair she buys now costs 8,000 THB (compared to 2,000 THB previously) — she is upgrading to the premium tier.
May buys less frequently but fills her cart with higher-value items → she is consolidating purchases, not disengaging.
Tum rarely buys, but each purchase is a flagship product → excluding him from key segments risks losing a high-value customer.
Fon’s baby product purchases decrease → it doesn’t mean she has stopped buying; her child may have grown, requiring a new category. Offering the same old promotions could fail to retain her.
All of this emphasizes that past behavior may not equal future intent.
How to Capture These Small Signals
Humans might not notice subtle changes, or even if they do, processing it manually can be complex. AI-powered CRM, however, can detect these signals in real time, enabling marketers to act immediately.
- Frequency: Buying more or less often
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Basket mix: From coffee → smoothie → decaf
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Value shift: From mid-range → premium
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Quantity / pack: From 1 pack → 2 packs → 3 packs
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Time shift: From morning → evening → lunchtime
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Product shift: Moving from one category to another
Using AI CRM allows brands to accurately and promptly capture these signals. This is crucial for delivering personalized experiences and increasing sales opportunities.
What is AI CRM? >> Read more
Conclusion
Looking solely at geo/demographic data, purchase volume, or even past behavior can help you “understand your customers.” However, doing so keeps you in a passive position — as if you are running behind the path your customers have already taken.
If you want to get ahead, what you need to focus on today is intent. This is because intent allows you to read the future: customers may be about to change, upgrade, or even churn.
Moreover, when you leverage AI CRM to detect intent faster than anyone else, you are not just following your customers. Instead, you can lead the game, giving you a greater chance of winning in today’s competitive market.
Intent isn’t just the next segment. It’s how you lead the game.